Before I unleash my predictions on 2012 I first want to reflect on the predictions I did for 2011:

1. The War between Google and Facebook is getting heated up
   With the launch of Google+, Google’s attempt for a Social Network, the war has reached it’s boiling point. Both parties don’t cooperate anymore. They are trying to dominate as much domains as possible going head on. This prediction has come true.
2. The Rise of Drupal and WordPress
   Last year I predicted that Drupal and WordPress would see a rise in a popularity when compared to Joomla. If you look at these stats this has become reality. Joomla is caught in a downwards spiral which has started to decline heavier in 2011. This, I also predicted correctly.
3. HTML5 & CSS3
   This prediction was a bit more complicated. What comes down to is that we (webdesigner) would be able to use more advanced HTML and CSS techniques because of the decline of outdated browsers (such as Internet Explorer 6). This has been the case. Microsoft is even counting down the usage of Internet Explorer 6. A good year for the webdesigner, but for me personally because all three my predictions have been spot on.

And now for the real show: My predictions for 2012:

 1. Apple Downhill

2012 is going to be the year in which the popularity of Apple will start a decline. I don’t expect that everyone will dump any product baring the Apple logo, but there will be a increase of people who will doubt the status of Apple. With the passing of Steve Jobs there is a big gaping hole within Apple. The leader is dead, there isn’t a dictator who has the guts to make decisions. This will result in sub-par products which are the result of compromises.

The iPhone 4S was disappointing, but the iPad 3 won’t be revolutionary. It is going to be a little bit better and faster but that’s about it. The televisions Apple is rumored to be developing won’t be more than a Frankenstein between existing products. If we reflect on the technological advancements of 2012 at the end of this year we will see that Apple has been trumped by Amazon. Because I predict Amazon, with Jeff Bezos as visonairy, will be the new Apple.

2. Webdesign is going back to basic

I already reflected on this here.

 3. Interactive Televisions

2012 is going to be another year in which the interactive television is going to be a hot topic. For years people are trying (and failing) to create a TV which utilizes all the advantages the Internet brings us. 2012 is another year where it won’t happen. Google has been trying to get some grip on the market with Google TV, but it doesn’t look like it’s going to breakthrough in 2012. Apple is also developing a Television (as mentioned above).

It’s not about the medium. It’s about the content. Because what’s the iPod without iTunes or imagine the iPhone without the Apps. It wouldn’t have been such a big hit. It’s going to be extremely difficult to cut a good deal with the Television broadcasters. That’s why I think that 2012 is the rise and fall of the Interactive Television.

What do you think about my predictions? Am I on the right track or is it all bullshit? Let me know in the comments!

The title of this post is not sarcastic. Steve Jobs dying is a very big deal.

First let me say that i’m not an Apple Fanboy. Actually I’m more of an Apple Hater. I hate the way they treat their customers by crippling them with numerous restrictions (i.e.: mandatory iTunes & strict policies (dis)allowing apps into the app store). And I hate the way consumers blindly follow the Apple Hype without thinking twice about these restrictions.

That being said I do believe the passing of Steve Jobs is a great loss. Steve Jobs was NOT a visionary! He took an already existing product (such as a phone or tablet) and made it into something consumers would actually be able to buy and use. After an Apple Product announcement the whole market would be propelled and similar products would pop up everywhere. And these similar products were even better (in my opinion). A great example is the mobile operating system Android. It would have never existed if Steve didn’t shook up the market.

So that leaves us with a big gap. If not Steve who is able to get us forward? Tim Cook? Steve Balmer? Larry Page? I don’t think so…

1. Developers are sick of the Apple App store. Months of developing can go straight into the waste basket when Apple decides your app is not suitable for the App store. Also the subscription based fees Apple is pressing on publishers won’t help the popularity of the App store.

2. Fragmentation (a big problem with Android Apps). Not everyone Android phone has the system requirements to run the latest version of Android. Meaning older phones running older Android versions. This makes it hard for a developer to keep his app up to date for all the different versions.

3. New uses for existing technologies, such as HTML5 and Responsive webdesign, to create compelling online experiences. With these technologies it is easy to create a website which works on every device and screen size.

In the future we will see developers bypassing apps and app stores to create just one centralized web app which plays nice with all modern devices. This shift is already visible with Facebook creating it’s own web app platform, they don’t feel like bowing down to the App store overlords.

In the end the demise of the app will be a lot easier for the developer freeing up time to innovate instead of troubling with App store dictators or fiddling with backwards compatibility.

And then it became less exciting. We got Twitter which is OK but not mind blowing. Foursquare… share where you are and… right, it doesn’t make sense to me (yet). And the big thing this year is Groupon. Groupon is nothing more than a coupon website! How more boring can it be? It’s like we’ve teleported five decades where everybody still clipped the coupons out of the local newspaper! Of course I understand it’s probably a huge hit (mainly because it’s one of the few sites actually found a working financial model) but you can hardly call it a revolution. It doesn’t move me. It feels like I’m chewing on the same piece of gum the last few years…

It’s time for something spectacular! Flying Cars anyone?

Last week a lot of Google  Software Engineers deactivated their Facebook accounts. This exodus started because of to the announcement on Facebook’s F8 conference concerning the change in privacy settings. Facebook is opening up to third party sites (such as Yelp) to make your surfing a more personal experience. This move by Google’s employees is interesting because the whole things looks orchestrated. Is this a spontaneous reaction or were these Google workers encouraged?

The decision by Facebook to open up is making the social website a serious competitor for Google. The way Google indexes the web is very theoritical, very ‘mechanical’. The 100+ factors in the algorhythm decide the ranking of websites depending on the search query. The machine is the boss. Facebook is going to do the opposite. It is now possible for website owners to place a Facebook ‘I like it’ button on their website. This way the website which is ‘liked’ the best will get higher in the rankings. An added layer is that you see how your (Facebook) friends have interacted with the website you’re looking at. So instead of asking help of a machine (Google) with a search query you now turn to your friends (Facebook). What do they reccomend? Which websites do they like? This technique is not new (delicious is already doing this) but the big difference is the huge user base. Some sources even claim that Facebook’s traffic is surpassing Google’s. This in combination with the opening up to third parties is creating a very powerfull new way to surf the web. If we now look at the Google developers shutting down their accounts in perspective it looks like a pre-emptive strike. To openly question Facebook’s privacy settings and make a public stance means the war has started. Or maybe it already started when Facebook denied Google from crawling their website? Anyway the next couple of years we are going to see some fireworks with Google and Facebook going head to head.

In the end we, the users, are always the winners because this means both parties have to be creative and innovative to obtain a loyal userbase. So I encourage this battle: Go war!

More likely future websites will have added layers enabling Voice Control or simplified touch controls. Making websites easier to use on the iPad and future iPad competitors without compromising experience for users viewing the website in an ordinary browser. Because it will take a very long time for the iPad (or any similair iPad-like device) to become a household product. Take a look at the penitration of smartphones. In 2009 only 17% of every mobile phone was a smartphone. Offering your data and services merely through Apps won’t cut it! You still need a website to please the biggest share of users. Websites are not dead, they are ready for their second life.

The device

Paper is a good medium. It’s easy to read articles on paper and it’s very portable. But it is a bitch to update. Newspapers have to put out a new version almost daily. Currently there are devices on the market which are easy on the eyes and portable as well. Such as the Amazon Kindle. Although the reviews aren’t great this device offers the basic functionality needed for the New Newspaper (the more costly iRex Illiad could do the trick as well). It’s portable, easy to read and updating the content is simple, which I will get to next.

The content

The user needs to decide when the content will be updated. This could be every minute, hour, day, week, etcetera. This is possible through the Wireless internet access which is available on the Kindle as well as on the iRex Illiad. Making use of RSS Feeds the user can select all the news sites he or she wants to follow.

For example: I want to follow at least 100 websites posting around 5 posts a day. I add the feeds to a newsreader like Google Reader. But I don’t have time to read 500 articles a day. I only want the most valuable news and not waste any time on uninteresting articles. This is where AideRSS comes in. By implementing AideRSS in your Google Reader I’m able to filter posts. I can set my own filter level if I want more or less articles. The same way as traditional newspapers filter all the incoming news and only publish the best. Only this time I’ve selected my own sources, the news is specified to my own taste. All you have to do is hook up your Kindle to Google Reader.

Bonus: The Form

And, if you are a bit nostalgic, you can even use the traditional form. The application Times takes your feeds and puts them in a traditional newspaper format. This enhances scanning articles and makes it easier to read. Too bad it’s only available for the Mac at the moment. So it’s waiting for someone to port it to the Kindle or Iliad.

I’m watching a DVD with my girlfriend. An actor enters the scene and my brain wakes up. I know this guy from another movie but for the love of god I can’t remember which one. For the next couple of minutes I’m wreckhing my brain ignoring the plot of the movie. Eventually I give in, pause the movie, dodge the evil eye of my girlfriend, boot my computer and go to IMDB. The “AHA” moment is satasfying but now I have to rewind the movie.

The Solution:

An integration of a DVD with IMDB. As soon as this mystery actor or actress appears you can retrieve their IMDB details with the push of a button. You don’t have to pause the movie because you get a simple overview in a small seperate screen which you can easily turn off. Of course you want your DVD player to be connected to the tubes of the interweb delivering real-time data, but for now I think settling for (static) data to be retrieved from the DVD a more realistic option.

How it could work:

Below I have made some screens detailing the way it could work.
You see an actor you want to know more about and you hit the IMDB button:

And when you click on Robert Downey Jr.: