This is a translation of the Dutch article posted on the Van Eldijk Blog.
Before I unleash my predictions on 2012 I first want to reflect on the predictions I did for 2011:
- The War between Google and Facebook is getting heated up
With the launch of Google+, Google’s attempt for a Social Network, the war has reached it’s boiling point. Both parties don’t cooperate anymore. They are trying to dominate as much domains as possible going head on. This prediction has come true. - The Rise of Drupal and WordPress
Last year I predicted that Drupal and WordPress would see a rise in a popularity when compared to Joomla. If you look at these stats this has become reality. Joomla is caught in a downwards spiral which has started to decline heavier in 2011. This, I also predicted correctly. - HTML5 & CSS3
This prediction was a bit more complicated. What comes down to is that we (webdesigner) would be able to use more advanced HTML and CSS techniques because of the decline of outdated browsers (such as Internet Explorer 6). This has been the case. Microsoft is even counting down the usage of Internet Explorer 6. A good year for the webdesigner, but for me personally because all three my predictions have been spot on.
And now for the real show: My predictions for 2012:
1. Apple Downhill
2012 is going to be the year in which the popularity of Apple will start a decline. I don’t expect that everyone will dump any product baring the Apple logo, but there will be a increase of people who will doubt the status of Apple. With the passing of Steve Jobs there is a big gaping hole within Apple. The leader is dead, there isn’t a dictator who has the guts to make decisions. This will result in sub-par products which are the result of compromises.
The iPhone 4S was disappointing, but the iPad 3 won’t be revolutionary. It is going to be a little bit better and faster but that’s about it. The televisions Apple is rumored to be developing won’t be more than a Frankenstein between existing products. If we reflect on the technological advancements of 2012 at the end of this year we will see that Apple has been trumped by Amazon. Because I predict Amazon, with Jeff Bezos as visonairy, will be the new Apple.
2. Webdesign is going back to basic
I already reflected on this here.
3. Interactive Televisions
2012 is going to be another year in which the interactive television is going to be a hot topic. For years people are trying (and failing) to create a TV which utilizes all the advantages the Internet brings us. 2012 is another year where it won’t happen. Google has been trying to get some grip on the market with Google TV, but it doesn’t look like it’s going to breakthrough in 2012. Apple is also developing a Television (as mentioned above).
It’s not about the medium. It’s about the content. Because what’s the iPod without iTunes or imagine the iPhone without the Apps. It wouldn’t have been such a big hit. It’s going to be extremely difficult to cut a good deal with the Television broadcasters. That’s why I think that 2012 is the rise and fall of the Interactive Television.
What do you think about my predictions? Am I on the right track or is it all bullshit? Let me know in the comments!